September Home Sales Ticked Up, But the Real Story Is Inventory

The National Association of Realtors released its September home sales numbers this morning, and there is more to the story than the headline. Sales ticked up 1.5 percent from August, which surprised the economists who had been expecting a decline. But before you read that as a comeback, look closer: August and September were the two slowest sales months of the year. The market is moving, just not very fast.

Here is the part that matters most for Yuma. Inventory climbed 1.9 percent in September to 1.6 million homes, the highest we have seen since November 2019. At the current sales pace, that is 4.8 months of supply. Prices are still rising, though: the median existing home sold for $417,500 last month, a record for any September. First-time buyers made up 31 percent of sales, up a touch from August, which tells you young buyers have not left the field.

What it means if you are buying

More homes to choose from plus slower sales means one thing: buyers finally have some leverage. NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun put it plainly, saying higher inventory and longer days on market give buyers improved negotiating power. In Yuma, that translates to real conversations. We are seeing sellers open to rate buydowns, closing cost help, and repairs they would have waved off two years ago. If you drive by neighborhoods off Avenue B or out near the Foothills, you will notice more for-sale signs sitting longer. That is not bad news for you if you are buying. It is room to negotiate.

The catch is affordability. Mortgage rates jumped again this month, with Freddie Mac reporting a 7.4 percent average last week and Bankrate clocking 7.57 percent today. Yun warned that further rate increases mean fewer buyers qualify. So the honest math is this: more choices and more bargaining power on one side, pricier monthly payments on the other.

What it means if you are selling

If you are thinking about listing, do not price like it is 2022. Buyers have options now, and overpriced homes sit. The sellers who are winning right now are the ones who price to the market from day one and come to the table with something extra, like a buydown or a credit. Winter visitors start arriving in Yuma in the coming weeks, and serious buyers are still out there, but they are picky.

Every market has its own personality, and national numbers only tell you so much. If you want to talk through what this looks like for your home or your budget right here in Yuma, I offer free consultations. Call or text (928) 503-9444 and let us figure out your next move together.